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National Centre for Energy Systems Integration

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October 2016

PI: Phil Taylor

National Centre for Energy Systems Integration

Funded by: EPSRC


Newcastle, Durham, Edinburgh, Heriot Watt, Sussex

Partners and stakeholders:

Siemens, Northern Powergrid, Northern Gas Networks, National Grid



Energy systems are important to the future of UK industry and society. Yet, the energy trilemma presents many complex interconnected challenges. Current integrated energy systems modelling and simulation techniques suffer from some shortcomings:-high level and static; answers or predictions utilise simplified assumptions; a limited degree of confidence; unmeasured uncertainty. So models are unable to provide accurate or detailed enough integrated representations. They also struggle to generate robust long-term plans in the face of uncertainties.

CESI aims to address these challenges by adopting a multi-vector and multi-vector approach within a highly collaborative environment.


The project team have been looking at energy demand as part of work package 4, led by Heriot Watt. The team has developed a community energy model of Findhorn, beginning with building archetypes based on real demand, thermal load modelling, consideration of diversity in multi-building simulation, methods for upscaling electrical loads using empirical data sets, and future demand scenarios.

The team has also been looking at uncertainty in building energy modelling. So far we have run 1000 simulations, varying 6 parameters (heating set point, boiler efficiency, wall U-value, roof U-value, floor U-value and infiltration rate) to train an “emulator”, which can then approximate energy demand quickly for a given choice of inputs, and assess the error of the approximation which it arrives at.

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