LEDS report: Appendix figures

Reading time: 6 minutes

Figure A2: Total energy consumption, petajoules

a) Buildings – shelter

Scenario Year Solar Heat Electricity Hydrogen Biogas Bioenergy Coal Oil Gas
Ignore 2020 0 52 421 0 3 9 52 1,289
2025 0 62 420 0 0 2 36 1,236
2030 0 73 417 0 0 0 36 1,208
2035 0 72 428 0 0 0 35 1,222
2040 0 72 432 0 0 0 39 1,232
2045 0 100 436 0 0 0 43 1,217
2050 0 120 431 0 0 0 47 1,209
Steer 2020 0 52 421 0 3 9 52 1,289
2025 0 91 447 0 0 2 9 1,205
2030 0 161 465 0 0 0 9 1,089
2035 0 249 572 24 0 0 0 816
2040 0 388 653 96 0 0 0 450
2045 0 435 748 158 0 0 0 133
2050 0 443 761 156 0 0 0 0
Shift 2020 0 52 394 0 3 9 52 1,289
2025 0 77 418 0 0 2 9 1,198
2030 1 102 407 0 0 0 9 1,105
2035 1 131 454 15 0 0 0 965
2040 1 195 539 33 0 0 0 699
2045 1 207 614 135 0 0 0 359
2050 0 245 681 230 0 0 0 0
Transform 2020 0 52 394 0 3 9 52 1,289
2025 0 51 380 0 2 9 1,197
2030 0 50 338 0 0 0 9 1,114
2035 0 49 358 19 0 0 0 942
2040 0 69 402 39 0 6 0 741
2045 0 82 459 94 0 16 0 420
2050 0 98 523 218 0 20 0 0

b) Buildings – non-domestic

Scenario Year Heat Electricity Hydrogen Biogas Bioenergy Wastes Oil Gas
Ignore 2020 18.5 275.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 14.6 433.5
2025 17.3 264.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 4.9 444.5
2030 14.1 269.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 8.6 459.6
2035 11.8 273.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 20.8 460.2
2040 14.6 284.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 37.1 462.7
2045 19.6 296.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6 63.0 463.5
2050 24.4 315.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4 98.6 463.1
Steer 2020 18.5 275.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 14.6 433.5
2025 41.0 299.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 5.1 383.3
2030 116.0 296.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 0.0 255.0
2035 123.1 350.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.0 135.8
2040 121.0 391.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.5 0.0 69.9
2045 113.9 438.1 0.0 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.9
2050 109.7 473.4 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
Shift 2020 18.5 275.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 14.6 433.5
2025 16.3 251.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 8.2 4.9 404.7
2030 13.9 256.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 7.8 0.0 352.1
2035 17.8 299.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 8.1 0.0 232.1
2040 17.9 326.0 0.0 3.4 2.4 6.1 0.0 164.1
2045 17.8 391.2 0.0 9.9 0.0 9.0 0.0 46.2
2050 23.7 438.8 6.1 18.6 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
Transform 2020 18.5 275.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 14.6 433.5
2025 16.5 224.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 11.0 393.6
2030 15.0 226.8 0.0 0.0 6.8 5.8 317.3
2035 12.3 237.6 0.0 2.4 0.0 6.6 5.9 236.6
2040 18.8 261.6 0.0 11.4 0.0 6.5 0.0 131.7
2045 39.4 258.8 0.0 19.6 1.8 6.6 0.0 80.6
2050 60.3 287.9 0.0 30.3 8.5 0.0 0.0

c) Mobility

Scenario Year Electricity Hydrogen Ammonia Biofuels Synthetic kerosene Oil Coal Gas
Ignore 2020 24 0 0 6 2,177 0 9
2025 33 0 0 0 2,330 0 12
2030 43 0 0 22 0 2,196 0 14
2035 57 0 0 41 0 2,054 0 16
2040 76 0 0 32 0 1,931 0 18
2045 102 0 0 33 0 1,761 0 23
2050 141 0 0 33 0 1,567 28
Steer 2020 24 0 0 6 2,177 0 9
2025 46 6 6 4 2,137 0 15
2030 116 30 14 125 0 1,510 0 39
2035 256 80 26 103 0 893 0 52
2040 343 115 30 124 0 561 0 27
2045 362 119 81 10 31 519 0 6
2050 360 116 76 10 62 471 7
Shift 2020 24 0 0 6 2,177 0 9
2025 50 3 0 4 1,973 0 12
2030 124 16 0 78 0 1,320 0 16
2035 221 48 1 146 0 719 0 18
2040 246 97 9 136 0 473 0 17
2045 247 110 28 165 0 318 0 15
2050 242 118 76 162 0 219 7
Transform 2020 24 0 0 6 2,177 0 9
2025 46 2 0 12 1,775 0 12
2030 96 10 0 51 1,161 0 14
2035 167 26 0 118 680 0 16
2040 192 72 0 153 430 0 18
2045 201 101 6 177 257 0 19
2050 197 108 22 174 191 17

d) Materials & products (industry)

Scenario Year Electricity Wastes Hydrogen Bioenergy Biogas Gas Non-energy use Oil Coal
Ignore 2020 291.8 65.3 0.0 0.0 14.8 428.9 170.9 128.9 214.6
2025 277.8 48.3 0.0 17.5 11.3 394.9 148.4 87.8 287.5
2030 264.1 32.4 0.0 50.0 14.2 355.8 140.5 47.3 338.4
2035 246.4 16.3 0.0 72.9 18.9 332.9 132.8 6.7 383.2
2040 238.2 16.8 0.0 75.3 16.5 292.7 134.4 6.7 484.5
2045 235.2 20.0 0.0 81.4 10.0 316.2 139.4 6.9 486.6
2050 234.1 22.5 0.0 87.4 5.0 316.6 144.8 7.1 512.2
Steer 2020 291.8 65.3 0.0 0.0 14.8 428.9 170.9 128.9 214.6
2025 288.6 50.6 1.8 21.8 20.2 404.3 148.4 88.2 229.8
2030 443.8 46.5 35.4 35.3 39.2 297.8 141.8 46.7 97.0
2035 629.8 37.2 71.4 15.2 40.9 109.3 138.2 5.6 77.6
2040 616.3 29.9 113.3 32.4 40.5 88.7 144.2 5.0 68.4
2045 607.9 35.7 221.9 8.0 27.8 39.7 156.2 4.1 64.5
2050 502.1 23.6 356.1 16.2 50.4 11.3 175.0 1.5 71.0
Shift 2020 291.8 65.3 0.0 0.0 14.8 428.9 170.9 128.9 214.6
2025 275.1 45.9 11.9 33.5 20.2 407.2 147.6 87.7 207.8
2030 258.2 37.9 33.8 54.6 23.1 464.9 138.5 47.0 96.2
2035 236.0 20.0 70.0 81.3 40.9 427.5 133.8 5.4 65.9
2040 235.4 15.8 130.5 104.8 45.3 335.0 134.9 4.8 57.1
2045 221.0 17.1 231.6 111.1 50.1 243.7 145.1 3.7 57.4
2050 246.2 21.8 438.5 113.5 89.2 0.0 159.8 11.8 66.1
Transform 2020 291.8 65.3 0.0 0.0 14.8 428.9 170.9 128.9 214.6
2025 266.0 50.9 4.6 27.1 10.1 350.1 145.9 87.2 222.9
2030 242.5 30.9 14.3 61.3 12.9 345.2 135.5 46.5 163.8
2035 214.8 14.4 40.2 94.6 43.1 311.2 124.3 5.7 108.8
2040 202.1 18.6 90.7 102.6 64.5 241.0 122.5 5.6 83.2
2045 196.2 23.2 172.0 105.9 108.5 162.2 131.9 4.6 42.3
2050 193.5 12.3 316.4 122.3 128.4 0.0 144.4 13.2 44.9

[Figure A2 ends]

Figure A3: Cumulative sequestration, CO2(Mt)

a) CCS and removals

Type Steer Shift Transform
Emissions gap 133.0
Fossil CCS – Industry 127.6 122.9 86.7
Fossil CCS – H2 production 254.2 306.3 251.5
Fossil CCS – Power generation 105.3 4.0 13.5
BECCS – H2 production 0.0 0.0 0.0
BECCS – Power generation 499.5 554.6 3.0
Direct Air Capture (DAC) 148.1

b) Nature-based solutions

Type Steer Shift Transform
Afforestation 44.7 243.0 486.0
Energy forestry 41.0 221.0 337.7
Soil sequestration 80.3 80.3 80.3

[Figure A3 ends]

Figure A4: Power generation capacity, GW

Steer

Generation type 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Storage 2.7 2.4 15.1 44.4 72.7
Imports 3.8 6.8 11.3 11.3 11.3
CHP 4.7 4.2 1.5 0.0 0.0
Geothermal 0.0 1.0 2.0 2.0
Hydro 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.7
Solar PV 0.1 13.8 31.2 68.8 105.7
Offshore wind 1.3 10.7 40.0 62.3 66.3
Onshore wind 3.9 15.5 43.7 65.1 72.2
Nuclear 10.3 8.9 7.2 10.0 15.3
H2 0.0 2.6 9.4 26.9
BECCS 1.0 3.1 5.8
Bioenergy 2.1 5.7 4.0 1.3 0.0
Oil CCS 0.0 0.2 1.7
Oil 4.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Gas CCS 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas CCS (Retr.) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas 30.6 26.6 25.2 24.2 0.0
Man. fuels 0.2 0.2 2.5 2.8 2.2
Coal 28.8 9.9

Shift

Generation type 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Storage 2.7 2.4 13.2 40.4 56.2
Imports 3.8 6.8 11.3 11.3 11.3
CHP 4.7 4.2 1.5 0.0 0.0
Geothermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.7
Solar PV 0.1 13.8 13.8 43.3 81.9
Offshore wind 1.3 10.7 40.0 45.4 49.4
Onshore wind 3.9 15.5 28.7 50.1 72.2
Nuclear 10.3 8.9 3.2 3.2 7.2
H2 0.0 2.6 9.4 26.9
BECCS 1.0 3.6 6.3
Bioenergy 2.1 5.7 4.0 1.3 0.0
Oil CCS 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oil 4.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Gas CCS 0.0 0.0 0.3
Gas CCS (Retr.) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas 30.6 26.6 17.3 4.2 0.0
Man. fuels 0.2 0.2 2.5 2.6 2.7
Coal 28.8 9.9

Transform

Generation type 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Storage 2.7 2.4 4.1 20.2 46.2
Imports 3.8 6.8 11.3 11.3 11.3
CHP 4.7 4.2 2.3 0.9 0.0
Geothermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.7
Solar PV 0.1 13.8 13.8 24.1 62.7
Offshore wind 1.3 10.7 40.0 40.0 40.3
Onshore wind 3.9 15.5 15.5 36.9 61.4
Nuclear 10.3 8.9 3.2 3.2 3.2
H2 0.0 2.6 9.4 19.7
BECCS 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bioenergy 2.1 5.7 4.0 1.3 0.0
Oil CCS 0.0
Oil 4.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Gas CCS 0.0 0.0 0.9
Gas CCS (Retr.) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas 30.6 26.6 23.4 11.7 0.0
Man. fuels 0.2 0.2 1.3 2.6 2.5
Coal 28.8 9.9

Total

Scenario 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Steer 94.5 106.8 188.1 306.5 382.8
Shift 94.5 106.8 140.9 216.4 315.1
Transform 94.5 106.8 123.3 163.0 249.0

[Figure A4 ends]

Figure A5: Transport demand, billions vehicle km

a) Car demand

Scenario Year Electric LPG Diesel Petrol Hybrid Hydrogen Natural gas
Ignore 2020 6.1 2.9 101.8 344.4 0.2
2025 15.3 0.0 8.5 442.7 0.0
2030 29.1 0.0 0.0 446.1 0.0 0.0
2035 49.9 0.0 0.0 434.3 0.0 0.0
2040 81.1 0.0 0.0 409.5 0.0 0.0
2045 128.1 0.0 0.0 370.2 0.0 0.0
2050 198.7 0.0 0.0 308.9 0.0 0.0
Steer 2020 6.1 2.9 101.8 344.4 0.2
2025 28.8 0.0 147.1 233.7 56.8 0.0 0.0
2030 113.0 0.0 138.7 77.7 145.8 0.0 0.0
2035 313.0 0.0 58.3 0.0 112.9 0.0 0.0
2040 453.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.4 0.0 0.0
2045 498.3 0.0
2050 507.7 0.0
Shift 2020 6.1 2.9 101.8 344.4 0.2
2025 28.8 0.0 8.5 347.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
2030 113.0 0.0 0.0 192.8 6.4 0.0 0.0
2035 235.8 0.0 0.0 49.2 6.4 0.0 0.0
2040 265.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0
2045 244.5 0.0
2050 221.8 0.0
Transform 2020 6.1 2.9 101.8 344.4 0.2
2025 20.2 0.0 8.5 298.5 0.0
2030 65.4 0.0 142.5 0.0
2035 164.3 0.0 27.3 0.0
2040 173.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
2045 155.3
2050 138.2

b) Bus demand

Scenario Year Electric Diesel Hybrid Hydrogen Natural gas
Ignore 2020 4.33
2025 0.09 4.35 0.00
2030 0.21 4.32 0.00
2035 0.36 4.25 0.00
2040 0.56 4.14 0.00
2045 0.80 3.96 0.00 0.00
2050 1.12 3.74 0.00 0.00 0.00
Steer 2020 4.33
2025 0.09 4.25 0.00 0.00 0.09
2030 0.44 3.65 0.00 0.06 0.38
2035 1.65 2.53 0.00 0.06 0.38
2040 3.42 0.70 0.00 0.28 0.28
2045 3.81 0.00 0.00 0.95 0.00
2050 3.88 0.97
Shift 2020 4.33
2025 0.09 7.46 0.00 0.00
2030 0.44 10.52 0.00 0.00 0.00
2035 1.72 10.33 0.00 0.02 0.00
2040 6.47 6.57 0.00 0.14 0.00
2045 11.45 2.34 0.00 0.53 0.00
2050 12.41 1.41 0.00 1.70 0.00
Transform 2020 4.33
2025 0.09 8.70
2030 0.44 12.93
2035 1.72 12.73 0.00
2040 6.47 8.96 0.09 0.00
2045 12.88 3.43 0.31 0.00
2050 14.21 2.51 1.04

c) LGV demand

Scenario Year Electric LPG Diesel Petrol Hybrid Hydrogen Natural gas
Ignore 2020 3.1 0.0 84.4 0.9 0.0 0.0
2025 5.9 0.0 86.4 6.1 0.0 0.0
2030 10.1 0.0 86.6 15.3 0.0 0.0
2035 16.4 0.0 88.3 18.7 0.0 0.0
2040 25.9 0.0 87.3 21.8 0.0 0.0
2045 40.2 0.0 81.7 23.7 0.0 0.0
2050 61.7 0.0 70.2 23.4 0.0 0.0
Steer 2020 3.1 0.0 84.4 0.9 0.0 0.0
2025 12.7 1.2 78.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
2030 48.5 5.0 33.7 0.0 12.1 0.0 5.0
2035 101.2 3.8 0.0 0.0 12.1 0.0 3.8
2040 135.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2045 145.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2050 155.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Shift 2020 3.1 0.0 84.4 0.9 0.0 0.0
2025 12.7 1.2 71.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
2030 48.5 5.0 32.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2
2035 89.9 3.8 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
2040 109.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2045 118.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2050 125.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Transform 2020 3.1 0.0 84.4 0.9 0.0 0.0
2025 12.7 1.2 68.0 4.1 0.0 0.0
2030 48.5 5.0 26.6 4.1 0.0 0.0
2035 85.0 3.8 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
2040 99.9 0.0
2045 107.0 0.0
2050 113.0

d) HGV demand

Scenario Year Diesel Hybrid Hydrogen Electric
Ignore 2020 30.51 0.00
2025 32.19 0.00
2030 33.21 0.68 0.00
2035 25.27 10.26 0.00 0.00
2040 22.49 14.75 0.00 0.00
2045 23.05 15.41 0.45 0.00
2050 15.88 23.75 1.02 0.00
Steer 2020 30.51 0.00
2025 30.06 0.00 1.29 0.50
2030 24.60 0.68 5.21 2.04
2035 4.86 3.56 17.20 6.73
2040 0.00 1.38 26.07 8.67
2045 0.00 0.00 27.23 11.67
2050 0.00 28.46 12.20
Shift 2020 30.51 0.00
2025 28.58 0.00 0.42 0.50
2030 22.82 0.56 2.56 2.04
2035 6.33 6.93 9.10 6.73
2040 0.00 7.94 19.86 2.51
2045 0.00 7.12 22.08 2.34
2050 0.00 6.31 22.96 3.53
Transform 2020 30.51 0.00
2025 28.20 0.00 0.10
2030 24.03 0.51 1.09
2035 11.29 11.05 4.20 0.00
2040 1.85 11.61 14.10 0.00
2045 0.00 8.58 20.01 0.00
2050 0.00 8.87 20.71 0.00

[Figure A5 ends]

Figure A6: Residential heat demand, useful heat, petajoules

Ignore

Technology 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Standalone space heating 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Standalone water heating 26.2 33.7 36.7 40.4 45.0 48.0 50.9
Bioenergy boiler 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coal boiler 4.1
Oil boiler 31.2 31.5 32.4 30.9 34.7 37.8 41.6
Network heat 37.3 44.8 52.2 51.5 51.9 72.4 86.2
Other micro-CHP 1.2 3.0 6.0 10.9 18.7
H2 boiler 0.0 0.0 39.8 75.0 105.5 105.5
H2 boiler + solar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
H2FC micro-CHP 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hybrid heat pump 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric boiler 1.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric boiler + solar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric heat pump 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric HP + solar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric resistive 72.8 87.5 85.6 87.6 90.2 90.9 91.3
Gas boiler + solar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas boiler 997.5 991.2 986.4 945.9 900.5 839.9 811.8

Steer

Technology 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Standalone space heating 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Standalone water heating 26.2 32.8 35.6 38.1 42.6 44.8 43.7
Bioenergy boiler 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coal boiler 4.1
Oil boiler 31.2 7.9 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Network heat 37.3 65.3 115.8 179.4 279.7 313.3 319.0
Other micro-CHP 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
H2 boiler 0.0 0.0 21.6 111.5 139.8 138.5
H2 boiler + solar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
H2FC micro-CHP 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hybrid heat pump 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric boiler 1.9 4.9 4.2 37.9 33.6 33.6 0.0
Electric boiler + solar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric heat pump 0.3 0.2 20.9 126.8 290.3 461.4 620.7
Electric HP + solar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric resistive 72.8 89.7 88.2 92.4 87.1 95.8 84.1
Gas boiler + solar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas boiler 997.5 988.8 921.8 703.3 358.6 118.2 0.0

Shift

Technology 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Standalone space heating 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Standalone water heating 26.2 34.2 37.5 33.8 36.6 30.0 27.4
Bioenergy boiler 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coal boiler 4.1
Oil boiler 31.2 7.9 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Network heat 37.3 55.4 73.6 94.4 140.4 149.2 176.1
Other micro-CHP 1.2 3.0 3.0 1.9 0.0
H2 boiler 8.5 20.3 20.3 105.8 158.0 204.1
H2 boiler + solar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
H2FC micro-CHP 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hybrid heat pump 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric boiler 1.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric boiler + solar 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric heat pump 0.3 17.7 35.9 105.5 269.1 447.0 643.8
Electric HP + solar 0.7 3.6 3.5 3.6 2.9 0.0
Electric resistive 72.8 86.4 85.1 87.5 87.5 90.0 84.5
Gas boiler + solar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas boiler 997.5 973.8 920.4 832.4 520.0 269.2 0.0

Transform

Technology 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Standalone space heating 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Standalone water heating 26.2 35.3 41.8 37.0 45.0 49.8 54.7
Bioenergy boiler 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coal boiler 4.1
Oil boiler 31.2 7.9 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Network heat 37.3 36.6 36.0 35.3 49.3 59.2 70.3
Other micro-CHP 1.2 5.6 10.1 16.1 15.0
H2 boiler 4.0 23.1 43.2 170.3 194.9 193.1
H2 boiler + solar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
H2FC micro-CHP 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hybrid heat pump 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric boiler 1.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric boiler + solar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric heat pump 0.3 18.0 17.9 90.5 169.0 305.5 474.5
Electric HP + solar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric resistive 72.8 85.6 78.0 66.8 59.1 49.4 39.9
Gas boiler + solar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas boiler 997.5 977.5 915.4 772.7 468.5 226.5 0.0

[Figure A6 ends]

Figure A7: Annual investment, £ billion

Steer

Technology 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Imports 0.22 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52
CHP 0.11 0.10 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Geothermal 0.00 0.00 0.54 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08
Hydro 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.22
Solar PV 1.26 1.36 2.10 3.04 3.27 3.40 4.04
Offshore wind 3.22 7.21 10.79 12.70 14.12 13.32 12.90
Onshore wind 1.85 3.59 5.23 6.81 7.50 8.19 7.98
Nuclear 1.12 2.00 2.97 4.84 4.69 6.45 7.14
H2 0.00 0.06 0.15 0.29 0.53 0.90 1.50
BECCS 0.54 1.31 1.68 2.55 3.12
Bioenergy 0.71 0.65 0.59 0.57 0.42 0.00 0.00
Oil CCS 0.00 0.07 0.07 0.60 0.65
Oil 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gas CCS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gas CCS (Retr.) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gas 0.26 0.32 0.48 0.65 0.45 0.20 0.00
Man. fuels 0.01 0.04 0.12 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.11
Coal 0.32

Shift

Technology 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Imports 0.22 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52
CHP 0.11 0.10 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Geothermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hydro 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.22
Solar PV 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.86 2.10 2.22 2.96
Offshore wind 3.22 7.21 10.79 10.65 10.45 9.65 9.24
Onshore wind 1.85 1.85 3.49 5.06 5.75 6.45 7.98
Nuclear 1.12 0.59 1.09 1.09 1.50 1.50 3.35
H2 0.00 0.06 0.15 0.29 0.53 0.90 1.51
BECCS 0.54 1.42 1.97 2.89 3.41
Bioenergy 0.71 0.65 0.59 0.57 0.42 0.00 0.00
Oil CCS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Oil 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gas CCS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06
Gas CCS (Retr.) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gas 0.26 0.34 0.33 0.31 0.08 0.00 0.00
Man. fuels 0.01 0.04 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.13
Coal 0.32

Transform

Technology 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Imports 0.22 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52
CHP 0.11 0.13 0.13 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.00
Geothermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hydro 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.22
Solar PV 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.28 1.32 1.44 2.17
Offshore wind 3.22 7.21 10.79 10.09 9.27 7.70 7.28
Onshore wind 1.85 1.85 2.01 3.58 4.27 4.97 6.50
Nuclear 1.12 0.59 1.09 1.09 1.50 1.50 1.50
H2 0.00 0.06 0.15 0.29 0.53 0.90 1.11
BECCS 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02
Bioenergy 0.71 0.65 0.59 0.57 0.42 0.00 0.00
Oil CCS 0.00 0.00
Oil 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gas CCS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22
Gas CCS (Retr.) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gas 0.26 0.33 0.44 0.43 0.22 0.01 0.00
Man. fuels 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.06 0.13 0.12 0.12
Coal 0.32

[Figure A7 ends]

Figure A8: Transport investment, £ billions

Steer

Sector 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Aviation – domestic 0.10 0.39 0.60 0.80 1.02 1.08 1.16
Aviation – international 2.33 5.63 8.08 10.82 13.92 15.04 16.09
Rail – freight 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
Rail – passenger 0.25 0.37 0.63 0.70 0.77 0.85 0.95
HGVs 4.31 4.48 5.33 6.17 5.87 6.22 6.31
LGVs 14.33 15.47 16.57 16.57 16.45 16.88 17.11
Buses 1.11 2.01 2.03 2.03 1.99 2.04 2.01
2 wheelers 0.59 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.59 0.65 0.70
Cars 51.72 56.87 55.32 50.97 50.73 47.24 46.65

Shift

Sector 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Aviation – domestic 0.10 0.25 0.41 0.60 0.79 0.79 0.81
Aviation – international 2.33 3.30 5.04 7.03 9.39 9.63 9.77
Rail – freight 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
Rail – passenger 0.25 0.55 0.85 1.00 1.15 1.30 1.48
HGVs 4.31 3.81 4.18 4.78 4.62 4.77 4.91
LGVs 14.33 14.15 13.28 13.19 13.39 13.69 13.81
Buses 1.11 3.37 4.81 5.27 5.53 5.69 6.14
2 wheelers 0.59 1.35 2.16 2.70 3.21 4.06 4.87
Cars 51.72 43.94 30.94 29.88 27.94 21.59 20.32

Transform

Sector 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Aviation – domestic 0.10 0.16 0.29 0.47 0.66 0.66 0.67
Aviation – international 2.33 2.33 2.66 4.57 6.90 7.11 7.22
Rail – freight 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.06
Rail – passenger 0.25 0.63 0.99 1.12 1.25 1.38 1.54
HGVs 4.31 3.48 3.61 4.00 4.16 4.23 4.31
LGVs 14.33 13.55 12.08 11.97 12.18 12.40 12.45
Buses 1.11 3.91 5.87 6.31 6.56 6.57 6.93
2 wheelers 0.59 2.25 3.84 4.14 4.40 5.05 5.64
Cars 51.72 36.23 17.03 20.09 18.80 12.61 13.27

[Figure A8 ends]

Banner photo credit: Alireza Attari on Unsplash