LEDS report: Chapter 4 figures

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Figure 7: GHG emissions by sector, MtCO2e

Sector Baseline Steer Shift Transform
2015 2050 2050 2050
Agriculture 45.9 23.54 18.54 14.80
Residential 78.8 1.23 1.99 1.59
Non-domestic 34.2 0.13 1.11 1.30
Transport 171.2 36.55 15.62 14.35
Industry 73.7 5.06 3.20 1.75
Process 51.1 -2.64 12.62 12.57
Hydrogen production 0.0 0.69 1.64 1.31
Electricity generation 107.2 -43.72 -37.26 -2.39
Upstream 9.8 0.11 0.18 0.17
Landuse & forestry 10.9 1.57 -21.42 -48.95
Emissions gap -26.60

[Figure 7 ends]

Figure 8: Total final energy consumption, petajoules

Scenario 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Reduction
Ignore 6,628 6,551 6,142 6,176 6,041 5,932 5,927 5,883 5,840 5%
Nudge 6,628 6,551 6,142 5,988 5,438 4,830 4,530 4,360 4,273 31%
Shift 6,628 6,540 6,114 5,701 4,991 4,382 4,044 3,768 3,636 41%
Transform 6,628 6,540 6,114 5,334 4,495 3,854 3,500 3,199 2,942 52%

[Figure 8 ends]

Figure 9: Energy consumption relative to 2020 levels

Year Scenario Sector
 Agriculture  Industry  Non-domestic  Residential  Transport
2020 Ignore 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nudge 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Shift 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Transform 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2030 Ignore -12% -6% 1% -5% 3%
Nudge -30% -10% -10% -6% -17%
Shift -10% -12% -16% -10% -30%
Transform -13% -20% -24% -16% -40%
2040 Ignore -33% -4% 8% -3% -7%
Nudge -42% -13% -22% -13% -46%
Shift -46% -19% -31% -19% -56%
Transform -46% -29% -43% -30% -61%
2050 Ignore -35% 1% 22% -1% -20%
Nudge -47% -8% -22% -26% -50%
Shift -54% -13% -34% -36% -63%
Transform -62% -26% -48% -52% -68%

Total:

Scenario 2030 2040 2050
Ignore -2% -4% -5%
Nudge -11% -26% -30%
Shift -18% -34% -41%
Transform -26% -43% -52%

[Figure 9 ends]

Figure 11: Power generation, MWh

Steer

Process Set 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Imports 2.9 23.8 24.1 24.7 24.7 33.4 36.9 42.6 46.9
CHP 10.7 6.6 3.7 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Geothermal 0.0 0.0 8.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0
Hydro 3.6 5.3 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Solar PV 0.1 9.2 13.3 15.0 30.5 52.4 67.8 84.1 104.7
Tidal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wave 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Offshore wind 3.0 20.2 43.4 105.5 166.1 215.8 259.4 276.0 276.2
Onshore wind 7.1 24.2 41.9 84.1 122.1 156.7 183.3 203.3 203.3
Nuclear 62.1 74.1 70.2 60.4 56.9 88.5 79.0 108.9 120.8
H2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.4
BECCS 8.0 19.3 24.7 37.5 45.9
Bioenergy 6.2 6.9 6.9 5.0 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oil CCS 0.0 1.5 0.0 12.3 13.2
Oil 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas CCS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas CCS (Retr.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas 143.0 74.1 92.1 11.9 9.7 14.1 10.6 4.7 0.0
Man. fuels 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.0
Coal 98.9 75.9 0.9

Shift

Process Set 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Imports 2.9 23.8 24.1 24.7 24.7 27.6 31.9 37.0 47.8
CHP 10.7 6.6 3.7 5.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Geothermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 3.6 5.3 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Solar PV 0.1 9.2 13.3 13.3 13.3 27.1 42.5 58.8 81.1
Tidal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wave 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Offshore wind 3.0 20.2 43.4 105.5 166.1 177.1 189.2 205.8 206.0
Onshore wind 7.1 24.2 41.9 41.9 79.9 114.4 141.1 169.0 203.3
Nuclear 62.1 74.1 70.2 36.7 22.8 25.3 25.3 25.3 56.9
H2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.7
BECCS 8.0 20.8 28.9 42.5 50.1
Bioenergy 6.2 6.9 6.9 5.9 2.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oil CCS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oil 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas CCS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
Gas CCS (Retr.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas 143.0 74.1 92.1 45.4 6.2 5.9 1.8 0.0 0.0
Man. fuels 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2
Coal 98.9 75.9 0.9

Transform

Process Set 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Imports 2.9 23.8 24.1 24.7 24.7 24.7 26.9 36.6 43.5
CHP 10.7 6.6 3.7 5.1 4.3 0.2 1.4
Geothermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 3.6 5.3 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Solar PV 0.1 9.2 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 23.5 39.8 62.0
Tidal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wave
Offshore wind 3.0 20.2 43.4 105.5 166.1 166.7 166.7 168.0 168.1
Onshore wind 7.1 24.2 41.9 41.9 42.6 77.2 103.9 131.8 173.1
Nuclear 62.1 74.1 70.2 36.7 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3
H2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.7
BECCS 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3
Bioenergy 6.2 6.9 6.9 5.0 2.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oil CCS 0.0
Oil 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas CCS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1
Gas CCS (Retr.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas 143.0 74.1 92.1 43.9 8.8 8.8 5.1 0.3 0.0
Man. fuels 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.1
Coal 98.9 75.9 0.9

[Figure 11 ends]

Figure 12: Carbon dioxide sequestration, MtCO2

12a CCS and engineered removals

Commodity Set Nudge Shift Transform
2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Emissions gap -26.60
Fossil CCS – Industry -0.58 -1.58 -3.60 -7.79 -11.97 -0.39 -1.58 -3.57 -7.50 -11.54 -0.34 -1.05 -2.81 -5.62 -7.52
Fossil CCS – H2 production -1.80 -4.70 -9.37 -16.89 -18.10 -1.80 -4.70 -9.37 -16.89 -28.51 -1.26 -3.52 -7.47 -13.84 -24.22
Fossil CCS – Power generation 0.00 -1.15 -0.01 -9.58 -10.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2.70
BECCS – H2 production 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BECCS – Power generation -5.87 -14.21 -18.23 -27.70 -33.88 -5.87 -15.33 -21.35 -31.36 -37.00 0.00 0.00 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20
Direct Air Capture (DAC) -1.80 -4.10 -8.40 -15.33

12b Nature-based removals

Process Set Nudge Shift Transform
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Afforestation -0.03 -0.44 -1.13 -1.80 -2.43 -3.15 -0.17 -2.37 -6.15 -9.76 -13.20 -17.12 -0.35 -4.75 -12.29 -19.52 -26.40 -34.24
Energy forestry 0.00 -1.00 -1.68 -1.66 -1.64 -1.62 -1.59 0.00 -4.93 -8.62 -9.05 -8.96 -8.85 -8.72 0.00 0.00 -4.73 -12.41 -15.82 -16.69 -17.89
Soil sequestration -0.75 -1.60 -2.45 -2.99 -3.27 -3.54 -3.81 -0.75 -1.60 -2.45 -2.99 -3.27 -3.54 -3.81 -0.75 -1.60 -2.45 -2.99 -3.27 -3.54 -3.81

[Figure 11 ends]

Figure 13

13a Change in energy system cost relative to 2020

Scenario 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Steer 0% 16% 33% 44% 53% 61% 68%
Steer_CB 0% 46% 57% 65% 71% 69% 76%
Shift 0% 4% 7% 14% 19% 21% 30%
Shift_CB 0% 7% 10% 17% 24% 25% 30%
Transform 0% -6% -13% -8% -6% -6% -1%
Transform_CB 0% -5% -10% -6% -3% -5% -1%

13b Difference in system cost relative to Steer demand scenario

Scenario 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Steer 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Steer_CB 0% 26% 18% 14% 12% 5% 5%
Shift 0% -10% -20% -21% -22% -25% -23%
Shift_CB 0% -8% -17% -19% -19% -22% -23%
Transform 0% -19% -34% -36% -38% -42% -41%
Transform_CB 0% -18% -32% -35% -37% -41% -41%

[Figure 13 ends]

Figure 14: Cumulative CO2 emissions, MtCO2

Year Steer Transform Transform_CB
2020 1,118 1,118 1,118
2025 2,783 2,658 2,354
2030 3,863 3,752 3,197
2035 4,506 4,391 3,695
2040 4,866 4,765 3,909
2045 4,957 4,839 3,892
2050 4,931 4,712 3,765

[Figure 14 ends]

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