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Improving the MARCO-UK Model

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January 2019 to June 2020

Project team

Marco Sakai

Paul Brockway

This project is focused on improving our MARCO-UK model – an econometric energy-economy model of the UK.

Improving the MARCO-UK Model

The University of Leeds’s MAcroeconometric Resource COnsumption (MARCO-UK) econometric model includes over 50 socio-technical-economic variables for the UK, covering the 1971-2050 period. By uniquely including thermodynamic energy (exergy) efficiency and primary, final and useful energy stages, MARCO-UK has provided new insight into the role of energy in the UK economy. This project is producing a new version, 2.0, of the MARCO-UK model, so that it can then be applied to CREDS research questions, for example giving new insights into the effects of different industrial futures on the economy, energy demand and employment.

What we are asking

We seek to develop improvements in relation to two key aspects of the MARCO-UK model:

Improved granularity

  • Industrial sectors: split energy (FEN_IND) to match BEIS sectors
  • Split fossil fuels/renewables inputs
  • Splitting OTHER into sub-sectors: commerce; Govt; agriculture; other
  • Including Transport
  • Including digital/ICT use.

Constraints/feedback loops

  • Energetic constraints (efficiency limits and net energy inputs)
  • Energy cost share vs GDP limits
  • Financial constraints: e.g. private and government debt
  • CO2 feedbacks (damage function)
  • Employment. i.e. labour force availability.

Banner photo credit: Jussara Romão on Unsplash