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Industrial energy demand projection improvements

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October 2018 to May 2019

Project team

John Barrett

Jonathan Norman

Alice Garvey

This project looks at how to improve economic data analysis estimations, estimates of work outputs from industrial processes and inter-relationships between industry sectors.

Improvements in industry energy demand projections

Working with BEIS’ modelling team, this project will improve the current econometric estimations, exergy estimates and inter-relationships between industry sectors. With strong links to BEIS, the analysis will feed directly into the objectives established within the Clean Growth Plan, the Industrial Strategy and the Industrial Roadmaps. An equally strong relationship exists with the IEA who have agreed to co-operation around data and analysis, starting with the iron and steel sector.

The iron and steel, and cement sectors contribute 33% of UK industrial GHG emissions, presenting a key target for energy demand reductions. This project develops simple subsector models to test the mitigation potentials of existing and breakthrough technologies, which can be achieved by 2050, in-keeping with key global climate commitments (such as the 1.5°C ambition). The need for further demand reduction through resource efficiency in these sectors will also be tested. It is envisaged that the findings of this project will be disseminated with industry, drawing on existing relationships, for example with Tata Steel.

What we are asking

  • What combination of technologies and/or demand reduction is required in these sectors to be in line with UK climate and emissions commitments on a consumption basis?
  • How do changing assumptions around deployment and levels of ambition affect the cumulative emissions reductions of mitigation scenarios?

Banner photo credit: Christopher Burns on Unsplash